Gemdale Group (600383): Steady growth in performance and obvious financing advantages
Matters: The company announced the 2018 annual report and the first quarter report of 2019; in 2018, it achieved operating income of USD 50.7 billion, an increase of 34.6%, attributable net profit of 81 million US dollars, an increase of 18 for the year.35%, corresponding to EPS1.79 yuan, in line with market expectations, a cash dividend of 6 yuan (including tax) was distributed for every 10 shares; operating income in the first quarter of 2019 was 11.1 billion yuan, an increase of 61.2%, attributable net profit of US $ 15 million, an increase of 36 for the year.8%, corresponding to EPS0.33 yuan. Ping An’s point of view: The performance is in line with expectations, and the advance payment is 武汉夜网论坛 excessive.The company’s 2018 revenue increased by 34 in ten years.6%, net profit attributable to mothers is increasing by 18.35%, the performance increase was mainly due to: 1) gross profit margin of real estate settlement increased by 9.1 up to 43%; 2) the consolidated real estate settlement income within the scope of the consolidated annual growth of 36.8%.As the sales scale is larger than the revenue scale, the advance payment at the end of the period increased by 20 compared with the end of the previous year.4% to 697.500 million, including 27 in 2019.The planned completion rate of 1% is expected to increase in 2019. Sales volume grew steadily, and construction started aggressively.Achieved sales of 1623 in 2019.300 million, sales area 877.80,000 square meters, each year increased by 15.3% and 14.5%; the average selling price of 18493 yuan / flat, multi-year growth of 0.7%.The Shanghai Jindi Zicheng City project has more than 4 billion units, the Beijing Yizhuang project, Haikou Yonghe Garden, Guangzhou Jindi Xiangshan Lake Garden and other projects have more than 3 billion expenditures. Wuhan Yuejiang Times, Beijing Huali Yayuan, Shenyang Litanshan and other project coefficients exceed 20Billion. Under the guidance of the city’s deep ploughing strategy, Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Wuhan, and other cities rank among the top ten in the market rankings.The saleable value in 2019 is 320 billion yuan, which is estimated to achieve 1920 billion yuan at a rate of 60%, which will increase by 18%.3%.The newly started area was about 15.55 million square meters and the completed area was about 6.72 million square meters. The two areas increased by about 79% and remained the same. In 2019, the planned new construction area was 81.91 million square meters, a decrease of 47.3%. Land investment is steady, and cities focus on the first and second tiers.The company acquired a total of 91 lands in 2018, with an increase of 10.72 million square meters, and it will decrease by 18% in the future. The total land price will be 100 billion, which will gradually decrease by 0.4%.The average floor price was 9,328 yuan / square meter, a year-on-year increase of 21%, accounting for 50 of the average sales price over the same period.4%, an increase of 8 from 2017.6 units.The company adheres to a rational layout and deeply cultivates first-tier cities and strong second-tier cities. The total investment of first-tier cities accounts for 25%, the total investment of second-tier cities accounts for 43%, and the total investment of third- and fourth-tier cities accounts for 32%.At the end of the period, the company has entered 50 cities across the country, with a total land reserve of approximately 44 million square meters and an equity land reserve of approximately 23 million square meters. The financial position is sound and financing costs are low.At the end of the period, 440 trillion cash was in hand, which was 403% of short-term debt (short-term borrowing + long-term debt due within one year), and there was less pressure on short-term debt repayment.In total, the company reported US $ 9 billion in corporate bonds, US $ 7 billion in ultra-short-term financing bonds, US $ 5.5 billion in medium-term notes, and 1.With the issuance of USD 500 million bonds, the company’s debt financing balance at the end of the period was 821.4 trillion, the expected average cost of debt financing is 4.83%, net debt ratio, asset and liability restructuring excluding advance receipts57.3% and 68.1%, both are still at the highest level in the industry. Investment suggestion: Maintain sustainable profit forecast. It is expected that the company’s EPS for 2019-2020 will be 2 respectively.13 yuan and 2.44 yuan, the current sustainable corresponding PE is 5 respectively.6 times and 4.9 times.The company’s performance has continued to improve, and it is estimated to be at the leading low, with a dividend yield of more than 5%, which is attractive, and maintain a “strongly recommended” rating. Risk reminders: 1) The company ‘s land reserve has a relatively low equity. It may face the risk of increasing the proportion of minority shareholders ‘profits and losses in the future and replace the net profit attributed to the parent; 2) The first and second-tier property markets have naturally recovered, and there may be policies caused by the first- and second-tier recoveryThe loosening of the terminal was less than expected risks; 3) Land prices continued to rise since 2016 due to the hot property market, and subsequent price limit policies in various cities were successively introduced, which may face the risk of lowering gross profit margins in the future.